This is the fourth straight month in which that happened which means that a national housing recovery may already be underway.
Now, it's worth stating that all real estate is local and that there's no such thing as a "national real estate market", but for home buyers looking to to maximize their negotiation power to get the best possible "deal",spotting trends like this before the media does is a good thing.
We shouldn't dismiss annual trends because they're helpful in the theoretical sense, but for real, live home buyers trying to identify trends and market bottoms,it's the month-to-month data that matters most.
After looking at 4 consecutive months of Case-Shiller data, the month-to-month data appears to show that home prices have stabilized in most major markets. And, in some, they've already started to recover from their lows.
Converting Your Primary Residence To An Investment Property? You May Not Qualify For Your Next Mortgage.
When a homeowner buys a new home, he has 3options of what to do with his current residence:
- Sell the home, paying off the mortgage in full
- Keep thehome as a second/vacation home
- Convert the home to an investment property
The most common action plan is the first one -- sell the home and pay off the mortgage. However, with home prices poised to rebound, some savvy homeowners are trying to avoid "selling low".
Unfortunately -- as of August 1, 2008 -- waiting out the market won't be so easy.
Burned by foreclosures and wary of risk, Fannie Mae issued new conforming mortgage guidelines that specifically apply to home buyers planning to convert an existing primary residence into a second home or investment property.
Among the highlights of Fannie Mae's changes:
Selling the primary residence
If the new home being purchased closes prior to the existing home's sale, both payments must be used to qualify the buyer for the new mortgage.
Converting to a second home
If the home has less than 30 percent equity in it, the home buyer must show 6 months of PITI reserves for both properties to qualify for the new mortgage.
Converting to an investment property
If the home has less than 30 percent equity, its rental income may not be used to help the buyer qualify forthe new mortgage.
If it seems like mortgage rules are getting strict, that's because they are.And they're expected to get tougher, too. With each foreclosure and high-profile bank collapse, mortgage lenders tighten up their guidelines just a bit, freezing out the "fringe" borrower from access to mortgage money.
Mortgage rates may rise through 2009, or they may fall. We don't know. But what we do know is that borrowing money to buy a home will be tougher.
If you plan to buy a home in the next 12 months, consider moving up your timeframe or -- at least -- planning ahead. Understanding the mortgagerules and how they can change may be the difference between getting approved for a home loan, or getting turned down.
Looking Back And Looking Ahead : August 25, 2008
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Momentum carried mortgage markets througha week of low trading volume and few economic releases.Rates were volatile, but ended the week unchanged overall.
Don't let the word "unchanged" fool you, however.
From day-to-day last week, mortgage rates covered a huge range and it was only coincidence that Friday ended where Monday began.
And it's the second week in a row that that happened.
Lately, mortgage rates have been highly sensitive to both inflation data and to the U.S. dollar. Lucky for rate shoppers, both were given a boost of support last week by high-profile Americans:
- Ben Bernanke said that inflation should moderate in 2009
- Warren Buffett said that he has no bets against the U.S. dollar
Comments from both of these men attracted buyers to the mortgage market, propping up prices and offsetting those that fled because of lingering troubleat Fannie Mac and Freddie Mac and skyrocketing wholesale prices.
But, for Americans in need of a home loan, know this: As long as there is uncertainty about the U.S. economy, mortgage rate volatility will continue.
And, this week, volatility will get an extra boost because of Labor Day.
Starting mid-day Thursday, trading volume will start to thin and will lead to larger-than-normal movements in mortgage bond pricing. This should cause fits for mortgage rate shoppers because rates will jump heading into weekend.
If you're currently comparing lenders, consider getting your rate locked in early in the week instead.
The Worst Places To Find Local Real Estate Information
Stories on TV about the national real estate market are misleading to Americans.
This is because there is no such thing as a "national real estate market".
Consider the latest American Housing Survey. It found that there are 124,377,000 homes in America spread across:
- 50 states, with
- More than 30,000 incorporated cities, and with
- An innumerable number of neighborhoods
And yet, the mediarepeatedly groups all 124 million homes into one giant lump and then gives an analysis. No matter how you slice and dice the data, a home in Oregon can't be compared to a home in Mississippi.
This is why national real estate statistics are somewhat useless.
To get real estate analysis that matters,look local instead. And I don't mean stats from your state -- I mean stats from your neighborhood. It's the only way to know what's driving home prices on your street.
Unfortunately, finding local data like this isn't easy; it's far too narrow to be covered by the press. So, the best place to get local real estate data is from a local real estate agent or from somebody else with access to raw real estate data in and around your neighborhood.
By talking to "in the market" professionals that know your backyard, you'll get a much clearer picture of your local market -- good or bad -- than the national media could ever provide.
Real estate is a local market so your real estate data should be local, too.
Mortgage Insurance Rates Skyrocket (For Homeowners That Still Qualify)
Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) is an insurance policypaid to a lender in the event that a homeowner defaults on his home loan.
With the growing number of mortgage defaults nationwide, mortgage insurers are finding their balance sheets under attack and their revenues in the red.
So far this year, mortgage insurers have paid out $6 billion in claims.
In response to the losses, the mortgage insurance industry is using two tactics to return to profitability -- and both mean bad news for homeowners.
- Raise the minimum standards to get insurance
- Raise the annual mortgage insurance cost
This is very similar to what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are doing to shore up their respective balance sheets; lending to only the most credit worthy, and making sure to charge them for their commensurate risk.
Because of the higher PMI rates, it's getting more expensive for small-downpayment home buyers to finance their homes. And that's if theycan even still getmortgage insurance.
Some mortgage insurers now require a 10 percent minimum downpayment in certain states.
So with the number of mortgage defaults expected to rise through 2009, qualifying for PMI should get more expensive and more difficult. If you plan to make a small downpayment on your next home -- or plan to remortgage your current low equity home -- consider moving up your timeframe.
It may not be as cheap or as easy to get financing as it is today.
(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)
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